The Death Of Business blog aims to provide readers with insightful and thought-provoking content on sustainability.
Introduction
I watched the movie ‘Don’t Look Up’ the other night and it brought home the short term self-interest of those politicians who are not able to look ahead and prevent an avoidable existential disaster. It also reinforced how indoctrination and spreading of untruths through social media has become endemic. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an example of how the Russian people have been duped by their government controlled media and leader.
As a human race, we are deeply steeped in a triple planetary crisis: climate change, nature & biodiversity loss, and pollution & waste. Climate change, caused by excessive carbon gas emissions into the atmosphere, has been established as a critical existential threat to humanity. Since there is usually such a long delay between action and effect, leaders need to take urgent action in the years up to 2030 to prevent a potential catastrophe.
These carbon emission have caused the earth’s temperature to rise by 10C between the pre-industrial era and today. We are seeing the consequences of this in weather patterns, melting glaciers and icecaps, the destruction of coral reefs, and uncontrollable wildfires. Experts have predicted that if we do not cap the warming at 1.50 C we are likely to experience even greater calamities. Capping the warming means that we have to balance the carbon emissions with regeneration of the atmosphere to attain net zero addition of carbon dioxide.
To achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the turning point has to be 2030. Thus the next eight years are critical where urgent action is required.
When writing ‘Death of Business as Usual’ I was confronted with numerous UN climate related developments in ‘difficult to understand’ jargon: agreements, conferences, acronyms etc. In this blog I will try to demystify these and related activities.
Paris Agreement and Conference Of the Parties (COP)
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change, adopted in 2015. It covers climate change mitigation, adaptation and finance. The Agreement was negotiated by 196 parties at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference outside Paris, France. As of November 2021, 193 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are parties to this agreement.
Many world leaders met in Glasgow in November 2021 at the COP26 conference to agree on a concerted way forward to reduce global warming to 1.50 C by 2050. Astonishingly, this was the 26th time countries had gathered under the convention, and a wishy-washy consensus was reached, but still not enough to achieve 1.5o C by 2050!
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of these long-term goals. NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. States set their initial NDCs, which are expected to be updated on a 5 year cycle.
There are also Net Zero Emission (NZE) pledges and targets. A country’s target covers all greenhouse gases and aims to reach net zero within national boundaries by 2050. The plan sets out a strategy for decarbonising ten areas of the country’s economy, with interim goals such as 30% of its public transport fleet having zero-emissions by 2035.
Modelling
The commitment of leaders at the COP26 conference was used in various models to evaluate the effect on global warming. The International Energy Agency (IEA) model gave two scenarios: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Announced Pledges Case (APC). These gave predicted global warming by 2100 of 2.70 C for the STEPS, and 2.10C for APC. The Det Norske Veritas (DNV) model gave two scenarios based on their two reports, the Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) and the Pathway to Net Zero (PNZ). These gave predicted global warming by 2100 of 2.30C for ETO and 1.50C for PNZ. Obviously the PNZ is what we need to achieve but this is predicted not to happen based on lack of current commitments and actions.
Carbon Emissions
It has been determined that the main cause of global warming is carbon emissions into the atmosphere. These are mainly from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. The first step to reduction of emissions is to determine emissions by the organization (defined as scope 1), energy purchases (defined as scope 2) and the inputs & outputs of the organization (defined as scope 3). The second step is to undertake prioritized mitigation actions in parallel for scopes 1, 2 and 3. The third step is to monitor progress against planned. The fourth step is to take corrective action to get back to the agreed plan.
If an organization cannot mitigate emissions sufficiently to achieve net zero, it can undertake carbon trading.
Financial Support for Change
A 100 billion dollar fund has been established by the developed nations to help the lesser developed nations to mitigate their emissions and move to net zero.
One major outcome of COP 26 has been the agreement by UK, France, Germany, EU and USA to help South Africa, the biggest carbon dioxide emitter in Africa, to reduce emissions dramatically. This is referred to as the International Just Energy Transition Partnership and entails shutting down coal mines and coal fired power stations and retraining workers in the creation of substitute sustainable power. It is hoped that this model may be replicated in countries such as Indonesia.
Monitoring
There have been many promises and plans in the past. Serious action is now required. Thus monitoring of progress towards achieving net zero is essential. I identify a few monitoring tools that are being used by various parties.
The Climate Change Performance Index evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 63 countries and also the European Union, which are together responsible for more than 90% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This includes the measurement of a country’s progress towards the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the country’s 2030 targets. The national performances are assessed based on 14 indicators in the following four categories:
1. GHG emissions (weighting 40%)
2. Renewable energy (weighting 20%)
3. Energy use (weighting 20%)
4. Climate policy (weighting 20%).
Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is a research group with the aim of monitoring government action to achieve their reduction of greenhouse gas emissions with regard to international agreements. It tracks climate action in the 32 countries which are responsible for over 80% of global emissions. Climate Watch’s interactive chart shows chnages in the world’s top 10 emitters.
The Climate Clock is a graphic which demonstrates how quickly the planet is approaching 1.5oC of global warming, given current emissions trends. It also shows the amount of CO2 already emitted, and the global warming to date.
The Net Zero Tracker collects information on targets for net zero emissions (and similar aims) pledged by countries, cities, states/regions/provinces and companies.
Other initiatives
Proactive governments and companies are wracking their brains on how to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 without disrupting the world economy excessively. It’s very likely that those companies who don’t have an immediate plan to become sustainable will not be around in 2050.
Forward-thinking governments are establishing policies to ensure compliance with the Paris agreement and will ensure peaking of their carbon emissions by 2030 so as to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Forward- thinking companies are investing in sustainable technology and methods to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050 with interim targets.
Initiatives include collaborative efforts between states and companies using combinations of current technologies to fast track the reduction in CO2 emissions.
Conclusion
The new normal will have to focus on sustainability, and maximizing a circular economy, to ensure the survival of our species and our planet.